Ok, so I just woke up about 90 minutes ago and it appears a lot of dramatic acts have taken place overnight (our time) in response to the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and killing of 7 more by Hizb Allah, a Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim militant group and political party (Hizb Allah is a more accurate spelling than Hezbollah, btw, since it literally means Party of Allah).

A quick summary of those actions: Israel has taken military steps to hold the country of Lebanon as a whole responsible for the actions of Hizb Allah. Broadly, these actions include assaults on Hizb Allah strongholds in Southern Lebanon, a naval/air blockade of Lebanon, and bombing Lebanon's main airport in Beirut.

I chose the title for this post because I think the bombing of Beirut's airport was excessive and inappropriate considering the actual situation in Lebanon, of which Israel is fully aware. (I think all of its other actions today have been justified, which I explain at the bottom.)

Anybody who knows anything about Lebanon knows that while Hizb Allah is a Lebanese political party and claims about 30% of the country as adherents, most of the rest of the country is either ambivalent towards Hizb Allah (the Sunni Muslims), or hates them (the Maronite Christians). While they are considered part of the government - the main justification for blaming all of Lebanon for their actions - the government does not support their actions.

The worst that can be said about the Lebanese government is that it has shown an inappropriate level of tolerance to the group, in an effort to avoid internal conflict. But while political will has certainly been lacking in Lebanon to do something about the problem, it is important to recognize that even had there been sufficient political will, the Lebanese government has not had anywhere near the military/police force necessary to actually force the group to disarm. Again, we are talking about a group that comprises about 30% of the country, is very radical, and is heavily armed. (Actually, it is probably accurate to say that political will has been lacking because military/police capacity has been lacking.)

Moreover, it is important to remember that the Lebanese government is a very fragile alliance of the 3 major religious groups in the country (Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims and Maronite Christians, all of which are roughly equal in size). The government does not have the same sort of independence as a separate entity that we are used to in America. The "Lebanese government" is better thought of as a fairly fragile agreement between those three groups. More to the point, it is also important to remember that those groups were at war with each other until very recently, in the Lebanese Civil War of the 1980's - that is where the drinking game "Beirut" gets its name, because the ping pong ball is supposed to be like the bombs that were tearing the country apart for a decade.

So not only has the government not had the power necessary to deal with Hizb Allah, it also has not had the mandate to do so - even people who really hate Hizb Allah, like the Maronite Christians and many of the urban Sunnis, probably would not have supported an effort by their leaders to disarm Hizb Allah, out of the (realistic) fear that it would start a new civil war.

Finally, it is important to recognize that until now, Hizb Allah has actually been losing influence in Lebanon. They lost the battle to keep Syria in Lebanon, and ever since the Israeli withdrawal in 1996, they have had difficulty convincing the Lebanese that their grievances are legitimate. That is why they have had to create issues out of thin air, like the ridiculous claim that Israel was still occupying Lebanese territory in the form of the Shebaa Farms.

EDIT: I should have made it more explicit... The current situation, if Lebanon feels attacked as a whole, will give Hizb Allah the legitimacy it has currently been lacking. So it will be counterproductive both for Israel and for the Lebanese who dislike Hizb Allah. Who needs Shebaa Farms if Israel reoccupies all of Southern Lebanon?

UPDATE: An unsubstantiated claim from Drudge: "Guerrillas who captured Israeli soldiers are trying to 'transfer them to Iran'"

If that is true, well, holy s**t... God help us all...

***SO, WHAT IS THE APPROPRIATE ISRAELI RESPONSE?***

In light of all I've said, I think that the best thing Israel can do right now is to apply military force with the three following objectives in mind:

1. Destroy Hizb Allah's capabilities as much as possible. That is what they have been doing with the raids on Southern Lebanon (Hizb Allah's stronghold).

2. Make it clear to Lebanese Shi'ite Muslims that Hizb Allah's illegitimate and terroristic actions will only lead to their own suffering. This has also been accomplished by attacking Southern Lebanon, because those attacks will certainly have a negative impact on the civilians living there. While those civilians might blame Israel for their suffering, deep down, they have to know that it would never have happened had their political party not engaged in fruitless "me too"-ism over the past several years by jumping into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (And if they fail to realize that Hizb Allah is their worst enemy, well, then it is hard to say that they don't deserve the consequences.)

3. Provide political cover to non-Hizb Allah Lebanese politicians, and create a situation in which the Sunnis and Maronite Christians can combine to finally force Hizb Allah to disarm.

The third objective is something that might be impossible, but Israel can try. The naval and air blockade is a good first step, because it amounts to Israel putting its foot down and saying that Lebanon will face sanctions until it does something about Hizb Allah. This is the mandate that Lebanese politicians need to take action. It will take time, and anti-Israeli sentiment will impede the effort, but we have to assume that upstanding politicians like the Hariris will ultimately do what is best for their people.

But the bottom line of this post is: Israel cannot and should not treat Lebanon as a homogeneous entity when it is clearly extremely heterogeneous. It's not fair, and it's also not in their own best interests.

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PS: Apologies to all those who have posted comments to my previous posts, to whom I have not responded. The reality is that although it is summer, I am actually quite busy with a startup company and am trying to avoid spending too much time on blogs. I will try to get to you eventually, however I hope this most recent post will clarify my perspectives a bit.